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Hindsight bias


justsurviving

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A very good friend of mine read my last blog entry and sent me a wonderful email. In it, she said that she understands the 'unforgiveness' of it all and detailed a social psychology principle to aid in the forgiveness process.

 

Hindsight bias is the prejudice we all have when we look at something that happened when we already know the outcome. Since I already had a stroke, it seems very obvious to me now that based on all the symptoms I had (blindness while running with it going away when I put my head below my heart [dissected carotid]; TIAs; etc.), I should have seen what was coming. However, the doc I went to didn't catch it and he's no slouch; Bob noticed something was off but couldn't figure out what was going on and certainly couldn't have predicted a stroke; I knew something was off, but I was very good at pushing through something (pain, dizziness, etc.).

 

In the medical field, when a diagnosis is finally provided, doctors who don't know the case or the outcome and who are only presented with the symptoms are unable to diagnose as well; this is a well-researched principle with examples from the medical and judicial fields.

 

In order to work through something or to forgive someone, a person needs to be able to (for lack of better term) buy into or hang their hat on a reason or an excuse. I tend to be rational and logical and this principle with scientific research as a basis makes sense to me and provides me with a tool to work through and possibly forgive Bob and myself sooner than I, otherwise, could have.

 

Thank you, Carol! :forgive_me?:

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Sherri:

 

thanks for sharing scientific basis with us. all of us are different in acceptance department. I Personally like spiritual twist to forgiveness and moving on theory. I like to believe no reason is bad reason if it gives you peace.

 

Asha

 

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Asha,

 

My way and your way are not mutually exclusive.

 

My point of this blog entry is that this is *one* way to help with the forgiveness and moving on.

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Sherri!

 

I just found this latest entry - finally, after traveling to SF and finals week . . . sorry it took me so long!

 

I'm so happy that what I told you was able to help you a bit in the road toward accepting and forgiving yourself. :-)

 

I'm the same way - although I have a spiritual side and I know forgiveness is the 'right' thing to do, it's not always that easy. Learning about hindsight bias and that it was truly impossible for anyone to have predicted what was going to happen - unless they had a magical crystal ball - has finally allowed me to forgive myself for all of my past "stupid" mistakes - that seem stupid now, in hindsight - and having been so "blind" that I couldn't read all the "signs" - and the "writing on the wall" - lol Yes, NOW it's all clear, but at the time, as you said, there was no way of knowing what we know now!

 

As for your stroke, who would ever in their wildest imaginations even consider that someone who's so young and healthy - in such great shape and running marathons - would have a stroke! To almost everyone out there, a stroke is something that happens to the very old, who have risk factors! Even the medical experts didn't realize what was happening, so how could you or Bob have a clue?

 

There's another principle I also like from psychology that I'm sure you've heard of - the desperate need we all have to believe in a just universe (or just world). There is no scientific basis for such a belief except that it gives us comfort. This need to believe in a just universe runs deep and is so fundamental, people won't give it up. How many times do you hear someone say, "they'll get theirs" or "karma's a bitch" - something like that? I hear this all the time. So, people are angry when something bad happens to them that they didn't 'deserve' and need to find a reason - it really scares us when there IS no reason and no one is to blame. But this belief is what keeps us from accepting the fact that bad things DO happen to good people - through no fault of their own. This is scary and sad to think about but true.

 

HUGS!

Carol :-)

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